Why the revolt in Iran and not in Lebanon?

For nearly three months, thousands of Iranian women have taken to the streets to protest against the regime of the mullahs. While our two peoples live under the grip of the same authoritarian regime, only Iranians have chosen the path of revolt to rise up despite the violence.

The trigger incident in Iran, was the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish descent, arrested by the Vice Police, for a lock of hair that protruded from her veil, in violation of the Islamic Republic's dress code. This moment that started with women demanding life and freedom, was soon joined by men and the support of an entire population, The national Iranian football team refused to sing the anthem at the opening match of the World Cup.

On the Lebanese side, Such messages are repeated all over the living rooms and on social networks. The Lebanese would however have reasons to rise up, after all that the country has experienced in the last three years, between the port explosion, the economic crisis, the devaluation of the Lebanese pound, the state that refuses to find a solution to its debt and that spends money from our deposits, a health crisis with the return of cholera, to flooded roads,...

In January 2022, Jack A. Goldstone was attending a symposium at the Collège de France on the theme: What is a political revolution?

Revolutions are the result of the breakdown of the social order, in several areas at once.The factors that can destabilize a society are: 1- economic or financial pressure, 2. the opposition of the elites, 3. the widespread popular anger at injustice, 4. a shared narrative that can mobilize support from the international community.

On the four set out points, the Iranians tick all the boxes, while in Lebanon, the last two are missing. Community division prevents widespread anger. Disagreement over political demands divert the attention of the international community, which seems to have become even more disinterested since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, uprising in Iran and protests in China. Internal divisions, and the feeling of not being able to deal with this political class has made the Lebanese apathetic. Moreover, this ruling regime managed to force the Lebanese to overspend the little energy they have left by creating crises of electricity, gasoline, bread, the dollar exchange rate... Distract, to continue sharing power is the motto of those in power. Another Lebanese particularity persists in each community: Some continue to identify with their leader, each of those still managed to contain part of the revolt, by guaranteeing vital minimum needs (food funds, social assistance, etc.).

Hezbollah has been the most successful, the Thawra (Revolution) may have been killed in its heart, when "everyone" became "everyone except my zaim" (leader). Although not everyone has the same level of responsibility, in the crisis we are experiencing.

The historian of the French Revolution Sophie Wahnich writes that a revolt can only be born, if the people identify a danger to their own interests, or the values that found a community. It adds that, when these two principles are met, the uprising is all the more likely.

Lebanese leaders have been able to maintain religious and sectarian divisions. How can a people revolt when they hear "us" and "them"? The Iranian government has been far more violent in the face of the protests, than Lebanon experienced in late 2019. In Iran several hundred have been killed by the security forces, and more than 16,000 have been charged according to NGOs.All everybody used the Kurdish slogan "women, life, freedom". From western Azerbaijan through Tehran and all the other regions. Shiites and Sunnis sang the same song, all the women had their hair uncovered and the men supported them. It is Khamenei who is being insulted, and it is the regime that must fall, and it is the turban of religious men that they bring down, While in Iran the protests have been attacking the main evil which is the religious system of the mullahs. In Lebanon it is the consequences of cancer that the Thawra attacked: The weapons of Hezbollah and the Iranian occupation have given way to the fight against corruption, the liberal economic system,... And as the demands increased, the interest decreased. Very quickly the anger of the early days died down, and even more, yoga sessions and carnivals were held in the squares of the revolution. In the 21st century, social media plays a crucial role in shaping revolutionary movements, giving protesters the means to organize. But they also allow the international community to be spectators and observers of what is happening, by relaying images to them, and even by being outraged, international public opinion can thus occupy a place of watchdog capable of curbing the violence of repression.

Lebanon was ahead of the curve in 2019, but it is still in the early stages of its transition to democracy. The whole world was watching us, but we couldn't keep up the momentum. By refusing to tackle the cancer of Hezbollah's weapons, parties have regained the upper hand, sectarian and regional divisions have gained the upper hand. Fatigue set in and COVID-19 reigned.

In 2005 there was no social media, even with fewer smartphones, we managed to bring together a million and a half people, to attract the world's attention and to get the Syrian army out of Lebanon. That was one of the demands along with the formation of an international tribunal to put on trial those responsible for the bombing that killed Rafic Hariri and several other innocent people. In short, the demands were political, not social.

In September 1944, when France was under German occupation, Sartre wrote "We have never been so free as we are under the occupation".

The Iranians understood that they were free and fighting the regime of the mullahs. The Lebanese must understand that there is no solution without the unification of all Lebanese, of all faiths and religions to demand freedom against the Iranian occupation.

● https://www.college-de-france.fr/agenda/colloque/qu-est-ce-qu-une-revolution-politique