The Evolution of Hezbollah: From Armed Militia to Normalized Political Party

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen," wrote Lenin, and this phrase summarizes what our region in general and Lebanon in particular are currently experiencing.

In less than three months, Hezbollah, which imposed its will with an iron fist under the finger of Hassan Nasrallah, has become a normal party.

Over the past three decades, members of the party have been accused by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri on February 14, 2005.

In December 2006, Hezbollah and its allies launched a major protest movement in Lebanon, which resulted in the occupation of downtown Beirut. This action had several objectives, including preventing the adoption of the STL, tasked with investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. This occupation of downtown lasted several months and deeply affected the economic activity of Beirut.

In May 2008, to contest the decision of Fouad Siniora's government to dismantle Hezbollah's private communications network and remove the head of Beirut airport security, considered close to the Party of God, Hezbollah considered these decisions a "declaration of war," deeming its communications network essential to its "resistance" against Israel. In response, Hezbollah fighters and their allies took control of several neighborhoods in Beirut during violent clashes that left dozens dead.

These events marked the first time Hezbollah used its weapons inside Lebanon against other Lebanese, constituting a significant turning point in the country's political history.

In January 2011, Hezbollah and its allies prompted the fall of Saad Hariri's government in Lebanon, mainly due to tensions related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). With demonstrations by its supporters wearing black shirts, the Iranian militia managed to impose Najib Mikati as Prime Minister, considering him more conciliatory on the STL issue.

Soon after, Hezbollah unilaterally decided to send its troops to Syria to support Bashar al-Assad's regime. Their intervention, with the help of Iran and Russia, in the battles of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and later Qalamoun and Qousseir, was decisive in keeping the Syrian dictator in power until last December.

Internally, the party continued to use violence by assassinating former minister Mohamad Chatah in December 2013 and Lokman Slim in February 2021. In October 2019, Hezbollah sent its supporters to terrorize demonstrators who wanted to end the mafia system that covered the militia's illegal weapons.

In October 2021, Hezbollah and its ally Amal organized a protest against Judge Tarek Bitar, who was in charge of investigating the devastating Beirut port explosion. The magistrate, whose investigation involved political figures close to the Shiite duo, was accused by these groups of politicizing the investigation, an allegation that masked their concern over his thorough investigation into the party's responsibility for storing ammonium nitrate. The clashes in Tayouneh resulted in seven deaths and 32 injuries.

Over the last twenty years, Hezbollah has succeeded in imposing its policy in Lebanon, turning the Cedar country into an Iranian province until its support for the war between Gaza and Israel put it in difficulty. Victim of its own overconfidence, Hezbollah found itself outpaced by the technological advancement of the Hebrew state, which succeeded in killing Hassan Nasrallah and all the party leaders after paralyzing several thousand of its members with the "pager operation." Israel then launched a war against the Iranian militia, destroying much of southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. More than a million people fled the attacked regions.

On November 26, the Lebanese government signed a ceasefire that resembled a capitulation for Hezbollah. On December 8, 2024, weakened by the Israeli attacks, the Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed, cutting the corridor between Iran and Lebanon that supplied Hezbollah with weapons and money.

On January 9, Hezbollah had no choice but to accept the election of General Joseph Aoun, mainly supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Four days later, Judge Nawaf Salam was appointed Prime Minister. This appointment was described by the newspaper Al-Akhbar as a "complete coup by the United States."

Since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, Hezbollah had accustomed us to using violence with impunity to overturn decisions that went against Iranian policy. Today, it has no choice but to legitimize the designated Prime Minister and boycott consultations for forming the government.

Freud wrote that "the first man who threw an insult instead of a stone was the founder of civilization." Hezbollah was thus forced to civilize itself after its military defeat. The discovery of over a hundred weapon caches and especially the overflight of Israeli drones constantly monitoring our territory left it no other choice.

There will always be people who consider the statements of Naim Kassem and other surviving party members as threats. However, they are only threats to those still suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.

It is certain that Hezbollah has an interest in General Joseph Aoun's success, and it knows it. One of the main reasons why the group's deputies will feel compelled to give their blessing to the Salam government is that foreign support for the new government will be their only means of financing reconstruction work in the Shiite regions ravaged by the war.

With over 99,000 homes destroyed or damaged and about $2.8 billion in reconstruction costs expected across the country, the task facing the group is monumental. But, just like after its war against Israel in 2006, Hezbollah's ability to facilitate its community's recovery will be crucial for its political future.

Hezbollah has had to make a pact with the devil to preserve its reputation as protector of its base. A pragmatism that seems likely to persist.

Hezbollah will not collapse overnight. However, as it finds itself with fewer and fewer options and American influence continues to grow through the expansion of the Lebanese army, it will struggle more to replenish its arsenal and prevent the regular army from imposing its will. With the constant expansion of its patrols and permanent presence in southern Lebanon and along its borders, Hezbollah itself will realize that the days when it could treat the Lebanese army as a servile younger brother are over and that it will, by necessity, have to integrate into the new political landscape that is emerging by respecting only the Lebanese constitution, especially as a new world order takes shape with Donald Trump's return to Washington and Elon Musk, his de facto vice president.

To the dismay of all the parties who built their narrative on opposition to the Shiite militia, Hezbollah has become a normal political party. Today, the Shiite community must feel part of the reconstruction of the new Lebanon while being firm with Hezbollah.