Record carbon emissions propel alternative solutions to the forefront

Humanity's failure to curb carbon emissions, reaching record levels in 2023, has brought previously overlooked methods for limiting CO2 to the forefront. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture (DAC) are emerging technologies, fundamentally different yet often conflated, now experiencing rapid growth.

CCS involves extracting CO2 from fossil fuel-fired power plant exhausts and heavy industries, preventing additional CO2 from entering the atmosphere. DAC, on the other hand, retrieves CO2 already present, constituting a "negative emissions" technology. DAC may earn credits for companies offsetting emissions, provided the captured CO2 is stored permanently.

The fossil fuel industry has employed CCS since the 1970s for enhanced oil recovery, but integrating CCS into existing plants has proven technically viable yet uneconomical. The Petra Nova facility in Texas, the largest CCS plant, shut down three years after opening in 2017. Nonetheless, mounting climate concerns and government subsidies have reignited interest.

In fall 2023, about 40 commercial-scale CCS facilities globally isolated 45 million tonnes of CO2, with planned projects potentially expanding capacity eightfold by 2030. DAC, however, is relatively new, with fewer than 30 plants globally capturing about 10,000 tonnes of CO2 annually.

To significantly contribute to decarbonization, both CCS and DAC must scale up substantially. CCS would need to divert 1.3 billion tonnes annually from power and industry by 2030, while DAC would need to remove 60 Mt CO2 per year. Despite the challenge, new players are emerging, with the first million-tonne-per-year DAC plant scheduled to launch in the US next year.

CCS costs range from $15 to $20 per tonne for industrial processes, while DAC costs significantly more, ranging from $600 to $1,000 per tonne. However, these costs are projected to decline significantly by 2050.

Substantial public and private investments are flowing into both CCS and DAC globally, driven by decarbonization goals. Legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in the US provide billions of dollars in support. Private entities are also investing, with major companies pledging to invest in "permanent carbon removal" initiatives.